Update - September 28 at 9:00 A.M.

Performance Report

This is a report of portfolio performance in 2009. The rates of return reflect the overall rate of return on all the funds that I have managed since 1981.

Statistics

Details of the overall portfolio are as follows:

Portfolio Return-actual 11.40 % (16.1% p.a.)
Portfolio January 1, 2009 $110.90 million
Portfolio September 28, 2009 $129.43 million
Investment earnings 2009 $13.12 million
Investment Earnings 1981-2009 $80.57 million

The portfolio is currently invested in the following fashion:

July 23 Sept. 28
Stock 16% 11%
Oil 5% 1%
Real Estate 3% 1%
Gold 4% 4%
VR Bonds 3% 3%
Bonds 1% 0%
Distress inv*. 0% 7%
Cash 68% 73%
TOTAL 100% 100%

* This is a new category. It can be broadly described as an eclectic mix of arbitrage opportunities, which have arisen from the aftermath of the economic collapse. I would be glad to expand on this if anyone wants a more detailed explanation.

Planning

We are in the process of wrapping up the final group of financial planning summaries. This is also integrated, if possible, with a client meeting and it has been wonderful to see so many of you over the past three months. I have two planning trips to Pennsylvania and upstate New York State that are in the process of being finalized and I expect to be away from the office from October 5-8.

Portfolio

Very little has changed in the past month to alter any of my opinions stated in the last report.

March was, as I stated, an excellent time to be a large scale buyer of equities and, in fact, we had a large stock position accumulated in the early spring. This allocation was the largest commitment we had made to stocks in many years and we expected to hold the stocks for some considerable time. As you know the markets have been very positive in the last six months and we are now in the odd position of holding the smallest stock allocation in our history. What was extraordinarily cheap became, in extremely rapid fashion, fully valued based on our demanding value criteria.

As you know we have very large cash positions and these aren’t making a statement about the future but, rather, merely reflect the dearth of attractive opportunities. We invest when the odds of a successful outcome are significantly in our favor and we wait, patiently, through those times when too much risk is in the marketplace.

As I mentioned above the only new area of investment has been in the area I call arbitrage. I have long been interested in finding the right vehicles, and the right time, to invest some of the portfolio in this sector. They are the scrap dealers and pawnbrokers of the marketplace and they have interesting prospects as we sort through the economic mess. The emphasis is on liquidations, bankruptcies, reorganizations and the opportunistic acquisition of assets. I believe that the returns through time should be, in the aggregate, quite satisfactory and, importantly, not overly dependent on the equity markets.

Summary

I cannot even begin to express my dissatisfaction (which is growing) and disgust for the economic and political leadership in this country over the last 10 years. It is hard to know where to start but I have to emphasize the comically incompetent Greenspan, every regulator in the entire financial system and a venal and tragically inept congress. The role of Goldman Sachs et al is well known but at least they knew what they were doing when they aided and abetted in the collapse.

But ranting is just that and it lets off steam but has no effect on how we manage the portfolio. We don’t try to change the world or make statements with the portfolio. We merely try to see the world as it is and act accordingly.

To summarize in managing your money:

  • We will remain calm.
  • Expect portfolio fluctuations. They are a normal part of the process. I usually respond to declines by making additional purchases.
  • Our basic value methodology is unchanged.
  • Our own money is invested, in its entirety, in exactly the same fashion as the portfolio.

Please don't hesitate to call if you have any questions.



p.s. We have been asked regularly this year whether we are accepting new clients and the answer is, regretfully, that we are currently at full capacity. We will let you know if this changes and we do have a waiting list. If you wish to suggest our name to anyone, we would be glad to place them on the waiting list. FYI there are now four names on the waiting list and we will operate on a strictly first come first served basis.

Mike


Click here to view the Actual Vs. Targeted Returns from 1981 to 2009 Actual Vs. Target Returns Sept. 09