Measuring Growth
by John P. Hussman, Hussman Econometrics
Sunrise, Florida
Letter to the Editor in Barrons, May 3, 1999

      Raising the price of a Beetle to the price of a Lamborghini doesn't make the Beetle go faster. Ken Safian ("Why the S&P is Better than Average," April 26) argues that the S&P 500 has become a "growth average" because its price/earnings multiple has tracked that of his Traditional Growth Average.
 
        The reason for this convergence, however, is that Safian's high P/E stocks are growing slower, while the S&P's slower-growing stocks are sporting higher P/Es. Historically, the stocks in Safian's average have enjoyed 12% annual earnings growth. In recent years, the components of his average have grown at less than half that rate. Meanwhile, the largest stocks in the S&P 500 Index have doubled or tripled their own individual valuation norms.
 
        Perhaps the best way to see whether the S&P is a growth average is to look at growth. Regardless of whether one measures from 1980 or 1990 to the present, the annual earnings growth rate of the S&P 500 has averaged 5.1%. A P/E of 36 seems a lot to pay for that kind of progress.



 
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